Climate change is transforming natural environments across the planet, but scientists still lack a complete picture of how different ecosystems are responding. Even in regions famous for their extraordinary biodiversity, important environmental changes may go unnoticed.

A new international review has revealed significant gaps in research on Mediterranean-type ecosystems, which contain numerous rare plant species and are particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, droughts and wildfires.

The study, conducted by researchers from the University of Cape Town and the South African Environmental Observation Network, was published in Ecological Solutions and Evidence in 2026.

Which Ecosystems Are At Risk?

Mediterranean-type ecosystems are found in five regions: the Mediterranean Basin, California, central Chile, southwestern Australia and South Africa.

Although geographically distant, these areas share similar climatic conditions, with hot, dry summers and cooler, wetter winters. They also support exceptional plant diversity, including many species found nowhere else.

However, increasingly severe droughts, changing rainfall patterns and wildfires are placing pressure on their vegetation. Understanding how plants respond is essential for protecting these landscapes and predicting future ecological changes.

What Did The Researchers Discover?

Scientists reviewed 128 observational studies examining how plant communities respond to disturbances associated with climate change.

Their findings revealed a striking geographical imbalance.

Only 9% of the studies were conducted in the Global South, despite the ecological importance of regions such as South Africa and Chile.

Research was concentrated primarily in better-studied areas, particularly California and the Mediterranean Basin.

This creates uncertainty because plant communities in different regions may react differently to similar environmental pressures.

Evidence collected in one location cannot automatically explain what will happen elsewhere.

Why Are Scientific Observations Missing?

Much of our knowledge about future climate impacts comes from computer models and controlled experiments.

These approaches are valuable, but they cannot fully replace long-term observations of plants growing in natural environments.

Researchers need to understand how vegetation changes over years or decades, particularly when several environmental pressures occur simultaneously.

The review also found that only 11 of the 128 studies were represented in assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

This highlights the limited observational evidence available in major international climate assessments.

What Changes Are Scientists Tracking?

The studies most frequently examined drought, climate variability, wildfires, frost and damage caused by insects or pathogens.

Researchers mainly measured plant growth and overall vegetation condition. Far fewer investigations explored changes in species diversity, seasonal development or plant physiology.

For example, understanding whether plants flower earlier, lose their ability to recover after drought or gradually disappear from particular habitats could provide valuable information about ecosystem resilience. Without these measurements, scientists may overlook important warning signs.

Can Every Change Be Blamed On Climate?

One of the review's most important conclusions concerns the difficulty of identifying causes. A decline in vegetation occurring during a period of rising temperatures does not necessarily mean that climate change caused it.

Other factors, including agricultural activity, invasive species, grazing animals and land management, can also influence ecosystems.

The researchers found that relatively few observational studies used advanced methods to separate climate-related effects from other environmental pressures. Improving these methods could make future findings more reliable.

How Can Research Improve?

The authors recommend stronger cooperation between scientists working across all five Mediterranean-type regions.

Combining long-term field observations, historical records, satellite imagery and experiments could provide a more comprehensive understanding of environmental change.

Existing datasets may also contain useful information that can be reassessed using improved analytical methods.

Better evidence would help conservationists identify vulnerable plant communities, design more effective protection measures and understand which ecosystems are most capable of recovering from disturbances.

The findings show that protecting biodiversity requires more than predicting future climate conditions. Scientists must also observe what is already happening in nature and understand why those changes occur.